Las Islas Malvinas son nuestras, mi culo

Argentina is saber-rattling about a blockade of the Falkland Islands and various pundits are speculating about a re-attempted invasion, now that the British military have down-sized.

Just one question: has anyone in the press looked at the ORBAT of the Argentine military? Never mind the land forces, what ships would escort troop-carrying craft and what aircraft would provide air cover?

According to Wiki the Argentine Air Force order of battle shows 2 squadrons of Pucara light ground attack prop craft (about 24), 2 of Skyhawk A-4AR (about 20), 3 of Mirage variants (about 20). The Argentine Navy has 4 destroyers of early 80s vintage (most delivered around the end of the Falklands war), three diesel subs that should be in a museum, and 9 corvettes with no apparent SAM equipment.

Assuming a generous 75% availability rate, that would give the Air Force 15 Mirages against the 4 Typhoons on Mount Pleasant. That's not going to cause the Typhoons to even break a sweat. On the naval side, the destroyers wouldn't stand a hope in hell against a Trafalgar-class SSN, let alone an Astute-class (HMS Astute seems to be on track to be in service in early 2012).

This is all about Cristina Kircher trying to willy-wave, but the problem with this is that she doesn't actually have a willy.

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