2012-07-05

Who'd be an Argentine banker?

Dear Cristina's latest wheeze is a corker: forcing the top 20 banks in the country to lend to businesses. Those UK readers may think this sounds familiar, but Cristina has an extra spin on the affair:

She said the loans would carry a maximum interest rate of the Badlar reference rate, which was 11.9pc per year for private banks in June, plus 400 basis points. The minimum loan period would be three years.
For reference, Argentinian inflation is running around 25%.

Banks will therefore be starting at an effective loss of 30% on the loan, before any default considerations. Who's going to specify how much they have to loan (and hence, lose)?

"The central bank's going to establish the conditions," she said, adding that state-run banks should not have to shoulder the entire responsibility for business loans.
...
Fernandez recently reformed the charter of the central bank, which is led by a close government ally...
Fantastic. I foresee a period of rapacious looting where the central bank sets high targets for loans, and the 20 major banks either refuse to meet them (thereby receiving swingeing fines), or make the loans for a quiet life and then get their faces ripped off by (at best) business owners borrowing the maximum amount at 11%, swapping it into dollars for three years, then swapping it back before deadline at a net real profit of 20% allowing for FX charges. Or, they may just not bother swapping it back and default on the loan. Why not? It's going to be a great time to pretend to be a small business.

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