The efficiency of central planning

Now we're seeing just how well a centrally planned Winter Olympics can be run in a socialist country, for the bargain price of $50 billion so far shouldn't the Guardian be shipping Polly Toynbee over to Sochi to report on the benefits of central government planning and purchasing in this event? After all, she's so vocally in favour of it in the UK...

I'm watching @SochiProblems on Twitter with something between amusement and growing horror...

On the way to the media center. The street is not quite ready yet. #SochiProblems pic.twitter.com/5lA4tmGoNz

— Simon Rosner (@SimonRosner) February 6, 2014

Luckily the Russian sense of humour is coming to the fore:

Favorite line of the week from the young Sochi volunteer on the bus, "we don't have problems in Russia, we have adventures".#SochiProblems

— Alan Springer (@alanspringer) February 5, 2014

The Brazilians organising Rio 2016 must be down on their knees thanking Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin for this farce - no matter how badly they mess up, they'll still look like a well-oiled machine compared to Sochi 2014.

A car crash of a commodities broker

It's with no little schadenfreude that I read that Jon "where's my seatbelt?" Corzine (past co-head of Goldman Sachs, New Jersey state governor, head of collapsed financial firm MF Global) is finally facing some legal demands for compensation as a result of the MF Global collapse:

[ex-FBI director Louis] Freeh said the officials breached their fiduciary duties to shareholders and failed to act in good faith, wiping out more than $1 billion in value by the time of MF Global's October 31, 2011, bankruptcy.
"The company's procedures and controls for monitoring risk were lacking and in disrepair," Freeh said in the lawsuit, filed on Monday night in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. "Corzine engaged in risky trading strategies that strained the company's liquidity and could not be properly monitored."

I find it interesting that Corzine - a Democratic politican and fund-raising bundler for the Democrats - has not faced any public inquiry or admonishment for the MF Global collapse. There's certainly no reason to think him involved in criminal wrongdoing, since it sounds as if MF Global's commingling of client funds as it tried to stay afloat happened a fair way down the management tree, but he certainly seemed to be pursuing a reckless course of investment. Betting the farm on European sovereign debt back in 2011 was an "interesting" choice of investment. Did Corzine and his board actually realise that a realistic shift in risk could wipe out their firm? If so, they were reckless. If not, where in the name of all that is holy were their risk controls?

Corzine is supposed to know how to manage risk. His alma mater, Goldman Sachs, is famous for being scrupulous about risk which is presumably how they avoided going down the bad mortgage debt plughole back in 2008:

Our first question was direct: Who’s the best risk manager on Wall Street? Hands down the answer was Goldman Sachs.

Either Corzine wasn't paying attention in all the Goldman Sachs board presentations on risk, VaR etc. and relied on someone else knowing what was going on (Hank Paulson, perhaps?), or he understood risk but didn't think it applied to MF Global, or he understood risk, knew it applied to MF Global, but didn't care to act on this.

The New York Times for one thinks that Corzine may end up having to pony up some dough:

That [Delaware law] means Mr. Freeh can seek to recover for a breach of the duty of due care by showing gross negligence on the part of the leaders of MF Global.
That is still a high standard, requiring something akin to proving recklessness by Mr. Corzine. But unlike a suit against the directors, which would probably be dismissed quickly, this claim has a reasonable chance of surviving a motion to dismiss that would allow it to proceed toward a trial. A public airing of MF Global's plunge into bankruptcy is probably the last thing Mr. Corzine wants, so the settlement value of the case is higher.

Corzine's 2011 testimony to Congress appears to lean towards option 2 ("I understood risk but got it wrong") but I would agree that probably the last thing Corzine wants is his decisions being aired in detail in court. Freeh is probably in with a good chance of a settlement. Sadly this means that we the public will be denied the chance of a financial post-mortem on exactly how someone as experienced as Corzine could screw up risk so badly.

Mind you, it may explain why he didn't properly assess his personal risk from not wearing a seatbelt.

Chutzpah, thy name is G4S

Oh, my aching sides. A major G4S shareholder feels hard done by and wants the UK Government to know it:

Neil Woodford, investment manager at Invesco Perpetual, which owns approximately 5pc of G4S’s shares, said the verbal dressing-down delivered to chief executive Nick Buckles at last month’s home affairs select committee meeting was like watching "a medieval persecution".
"If this is the way Parliament wants to treat business, please Parliament, don’t be surprised when businesses decide this isn't the country for them," Mr Woodford said.

First thing, Neil, let's clarify terminology. A medieval persecution could have involved being pressed to extract a plea, being placed in the stocks and pelted with food, perhaps a little pond-ducking if witchcraft were suspected, and finally burning at the stake. Being lectured by sanctimonious MPs may be annoying and tedious, but it's nothing like medieval persecution.

And why was the home affairs select committee in high dudgeon at G4S? Let us refresh our memories on the pre-Olympics security farce:

Home Secretary Theresa May said Monday that G4S had "repeatedly assured us that they would overshoot their target."
"G4S only told the government that they would be unable to meet their contractual arrangements last Wednesday [July 11th, 2 weeks before the Olympics opened] and we took immediate action," she said.

That's not a small error. Suddenly announcing 2 weeks before the Olympics that you are many thousands of people short (and not sure that the ones you have booked will actually turn up) is a weapons-grade cock-up by CEO Nick Buckles. I note that Nick joined G4S in 1985 as a project accountant. Given that he's 52 that implies a 1960 birthdate and therefore he must have joined pretty much immediately after qualifying as an accountant. Perhaps this farce is what happens when your CEO has never really worked anywhere other than your firm.

Neil's concern is understandable (if not a cause for sympathy). G4S reports first-half results on Monday, and I can't see them being anything short of ugly. An outflow of small investors and the resulting plunge in share price will not do Neil's funds any good at all. The three month performance of G4S shares is wonderful to behold. After the plunge from a high of 290 when the bad news came out, it bottomed at 240 and has steadily climbed back up to 265 or so. The last thing Neil wants is a general boycott of G4S by governments Europe-wide.

But what of Neil's concern that businesses may decide that this isn't the country for them? There are many reasons for business to dislike the UK's operating environment, but what of those businesses concerned that when they screw up as badly as G4S they will have their feet held to the legal fire? They flippin' well should be concerned. If they think they could screw up this badly, they shouldn't be in business in the first place.

Olymics Closing Ceremony liveblog

[9:03] A typical day in London? I hope some appropriate music to celebrate London Underground (Amateur Transplants, I'm looking at you).
[9:08] All that newspaper next to the Olympic Flame makes me nervous.
[9:10] The Italian Job and Only Fools and Horses? Practically no-one born outside the British Isles is going to get that one.
[9:11] Madness! Shame they didn't get the Young Ones actors along as well. I so want that Union Flag skirt the flying saxophonist is playing. I wonder what the kids singing along thought about Suggs and the guys.
[9:13] The Household Guards playing ska and Blur. Now I've seen everything.
[9:14] Is that really Neil Tennant and Chris Lowe under those conical hats?
[9:16] Wand Erection. Oh dearie me. They look about 12 years old. Presumably this is the ceremony organisers saying "look, we have a huge range of British music - we have the really crap stuff too."
[9:18] Some of the child dancers look as if they've had a few Chicken Nuggets too many. Newsflash: just because it works for Usain Bolt, doesn't mean it'll work for you too.
[9:19] The Stomp dancing with six-foot poles and hurling around dustbin lids is presumably designed to recall the urban riots of last year...
[9:20] Cleaning London's streets with brooms? Whom are they kidding? You need heavy industrial gear.
[9:21] OK, the demonic mimes are freaking me out.
[9:23] Ah, Waterloo Sunset. Hope the French appreciate this.
[9:30] Musical montage time. Oh, the tears. (Will they do a similar run for the sweat, and then the blood?)

[9:31] Now they're just rubbing it in for that poor fencer.
[9:32] "The Crying Games"? OMG. Will Jaye Davidson make an appearance? Bet the USA will cut to adverts for that scene.
[9:33] The Australian flag bearer is a sailor. I'd imagine you have to be pretty good to make it as a sailor there; fall overboard and you'll be lucky to scramble back in the boat before a shark, croc, jellyfish or sea snake gets you.
[9:34] Oscar! Let's face it, there was no other choice for the SA flag carrier.
[9:35] These ceremonies are a really test for recognising obscure flags. Was that Kazakhstan - yellow sun, light blue flag?
[9:37] The Japanese team are waving the Rising Sun flag in one hand, and Union Jack in the other. Good on them.
[9:38] Announcers enumerating all the national acclamations that medal winners might receive.
[9:39] And now the French doing the same bi-national flag waving. They don't look quite as enthusiastic about it, for some reason.
[9:41] Mozambique is spelled with a cedilla'd C instead of the Z. Who knew?
[9:43] What happens when the confetti drifts across the Olympic Flame? Shades of the doves in Atlanta (if that wasn't an urban myth).
[9:44] The Finns are smiling! You don't see that very often.
[9:46] I like the South Korean blazer ensembles. Very sharp.
[9:47] The Canucks are sporting short denim vests, nearly bolero jacket style.
[9:48] I hope the lightbulbs on those blue bowler hats are compact fluorescent, not incandescent. Though I can see a few have gone out already. Be a bit messy if they break.
[9:52] If The Congo and Tonga merged, would they become The Conga?
[9:53] What's with those white boxes or tables queuing up at the entrance?
[9:54] When Brazil does their presentation of what to expect in Rio 2016, I hope they'll get Rubens Barrichello to do a few donuts in his F1 car. I doubt they'll mention the favelas though.
[9:55] Kate Bush! Fantastic. But what are the boxes for?
[9:56] Oh, here comes the "blood" video montage by the look of things...
[9:57] I wonder if they're trying to build a modern Stonehenge? The boxes have me baffled. Some have a small hole in the centre of a couple of squares. What's it for?
[9:58] Sliding off the bike, that's going to hurt in the morning. Much like having Jade Jones slap you around the head.

[10:00] No, I really don't get the white pyramid symbolism. Do we get an explanation?
[10:01] Interesting, they kept the men's Marathon victory ceremony for tonight.
[10:03] If you win your country's first medal since 1972, and it's the gold for the men's marathon, they should probably make you Prime Minister when you get home.
[10:04] The band are making a good job of the Ugandan anthem, considering that it's probably not been on their most-practiced list.
[10:07] The volunteers standing up on the podium look rather nervous. Yes, about 1bn people are watching you right now (or, delayed by a good few hours for NBC watchers).
[10:09] The usher on stage: "Right you lot, you've had your 2 mins of fame, now bugger off, I've got my next act coming."
[10:10] Bohemian Rhapsody: we're going to have tens of thousands of strained necks in the morning.
Dammit, they switched to Lennon's "Imagine". How come he gets the full track played and Freddie doesn't? They're both dead, there can't be a sensibility issue...
[10:12] Building a puzzle on stage. Is it a giant sheep?
[10:13] No, a giant Lennon face. Disturbing. I would have preferred a sheep.
[10:14] Georgie! Freedom! Easy with the hip thrusting there George, you're not as young as you were.
[10:19] George gets to sing two full tracks! He's clearly twice as good as Lennon.
[10:24] For a moment there I thought we were going to be treated to a Mods+Rockets stunt brawl in the middle of the arena. Kaiser Chiefs could have sung "I Predict a Riot". Is this a Wiggo homage?
[10:26] Picture sequence reminding you that David Bowie was even weirder than you remember.
[10:27] A reminder that Britain can do clothing as ridiculous as anything elsewhere in the world.
[10:29] And models as pouty as anyone else in the world.

[10:31] Annie Lennox, on what looks like The Flying Dutchman. Don't see the connection yet. She's still got a good set of pipes on her though.
[10:36] Who's this chap on the guitar? Looks like a slightly grungier version of Prince Harry. Am I out of touch?
[10:38] The tightrope walker sets fire to a dummy. The symbolism escapes me.
[10:39] Oh dear, Russell Brand is going to go "a little bit zany". Spare us.
[10:41] Bond: they may be good classical musicians but I'm guessing their primary selling point is not their music.
[10:42] This is, however, exactly the kind of exposed-flesh performance that I would have associated with Russell Brand.
[10:44] An inflatable octopus? What's that got to do with anything? Do we even have octopi in British waters? Fatboy Slim is the octopus brain?
[10:46] Jessie J: It's not about the money, money, money - just don't mention the £10bn price tag...
[10:50] I didn't realise "Dynamite" was a Taio Cruz original - I've only heard it from China Anne McClain on A.N.T. Farm.
[10:55] Who's in the taxis? Oh lordy, I think I know...
[10:56] Did Victoria design these costumes? Enquiring minds want to know.
[10:57] Vickie certainly doesn't look like she's enjoying herself.
[10:58] Driving off in different directions symbolising the group's split? (Meow!)

[11:00] Just noticed the quote on the stage: "When a man is tired of London, he is tired of life." I prefer the Pratchett "When a man is tired of Ankh Morpork, he is tired of ankle-deep slurry."
[11:01] The Mancunian brothers are back: Noel and Liam's "Wonderwall" sounding as cheerful and upbeat as ever. I preferred the Mike Flowers version.
[11:03] Thank goodness that's over. Please, please something upbeat now.
[11:05] This is starting to get a bit trippy.
[11:06] Someone online just commented on the accident risk of the Spice Girls taxi-surfing. It might have a high risk of incident, but the worst-case impact was a complete loss of the Spice Girls. I wouldn't sweat it.
[11:07] Now this is upbeat - Eric Idle conducting "Always look on the bright side of life." Rollerskating nuns?
[11:08] We've had Idle - are we going to have Cleese and/or Palin? Pleaseohpleaseohplease...
[11:10] Many of the non-British audience at this point will be checking to see what they've been drinking.
[11:11] "We want to fire you out of a cannon with half a billion people watching - so if anything goes wrong, at least you'll be very famous."
[11:12] Muse, as heard in "Twilight". Nevertheless they seem quite good.
[11:14] One wonders how the TV commentators in Morocco, Azerbaijan, Mongolia and Malaysia (for example) are explaining this performance to their audience.
[11:16] They got Freddie to sing! I guess he didn't charge much of a performance fee.
[11:17] It's Dr. Brian May! After this jam he'll be asking for the stadium lights to be turned down so he can give a short presentation on the Perseids shower.
[11:20] Jessie J and Brian May singing "We Will Rock You". Well, Freddie's outfits were probably about as self-restrained as Jessie's...
[11:22] Was Freddie Mercury reincarnated into Jessie J, and did he mind?
[11:23] I hear the Greek national anthem is 10 bars shorter this year - austerity, you know.
[11:26] Looks like they have two Bootnecks carrying the Olympic flag, but no Paras. Odd.
[11:27] Is this Boris Johnson's moment?
[11:28] They have given the flag to Boris Johnson. What could possibly go wrong?
[11:29] The Brazilian athletes are celebrating the flag handover - wait until you see the bill, guys...

[11:30] Are we into extra time now?
[11:31] Aha, the famous Brazilian dancing street-sweeper. Nice touch.
[11:33] Wonder if they'll get O Cristo Redemptor into the performance.
[11:36] Ho hum, they need to pick up the pace a bit. They had quite an act to follow.
[11:39] Well, they brought out Pelé - that's a start... would have been nice for him to kick a ball around a bit, at least.
[11:40] Lord Coe and Mr. Rogue. "Brazil, it's all your problem now".
[11:41] Translation: "We didn't screw things up too badly, heaven knows how. Good job by the Army, good thing Group 4 screwed the pooch so badly that they made us bring the Army in in the first place".
[11:44] Translation: "Thank you to the people of Britain for keeping the cash flowing in even past the point where it ceased to be funny."
[11:45] "The spirit of these Olympics will inspire a generation" == "please keep the £120mm/year flowing to our prospective 2016 Olympians".
[11:46] Prince Harry is out with his sister-in-law this evening?
[11:47] I notice Jacques Rogges didn't try speaking in French - he'd have been thrown into the Thames, most likely.
[11:48] "You have shown the world the best of British hospitality" - with official catering by McDonalds.
[11:49] For goodness' sake, Jacques, try cracking a smile once in a while.
[11:51] This descending of the flame looks more than a little hazardous.
[11:52] Take That - of course. Good on Gary Barlow for appearing despite his awful loss last week.
[11:55] Probably wise to not attempt a Beijing-level fireworks display - it would have levelled most of East London. (Well, that may be more of a feature than a bug).
[11:56] Phoenix to the Flames - wasn't that a Robbie Williams number?
[11:57] Darcy Bussell is holding up well, though I notice she's quite restrained in her moves. Still elegance personified.

[12:00] I don't want to think about how big the Olympic stadium's gas bill from Centrica is going to be this month.
[12:01] All together now: "The Who?"
[12:08] I take back my earlier comment. We do seem to be trying to level East London.

Next time you read someone in The Grauniad calling British society "racist"...

...think back to 11th August when tens of thousands of British sports fans cheered a young man born in Somalia over the finish line of the 5000 metres run, rose to their feet as a Jamaican sprinter team crashed their way through a world record, and cheered both Mo Farah and Usain Bolt as they clowned it up on the victory podium.

A special mention to Dutch judo bronze Edith Bosch who, enraged by a lout throwing a bottle onto the track behind the 100m men's finalists punched out the offender after which he was thrown out of the stadium and arrested:

"Some drunk in front of me throws a bottle onto the track!! I hit him … Unbelievable," she said, adding the hashtags "angry" and "norespect".
She revealed in her next tweet that she had missed the race in the commotion: "Dammit ... and I missed the 100m! What a BEEP".

This is one aspect of "the new civility" which I feel we should encourage.

LOCOG do not want to sell Olympic tickets

At least, that is the only reasonable conclusion from the news that Ticketmaster blocks polling of the Olympics ticketing site:

[Adam Naisbitt] shared ticket information via Twitter and helped hundreds buy tickets to watch the games.
A London 2012 spokesman said its ticket agent blocked all computerised polling of the site to foil touts.

So Ticketmaster does not want people to discover what people are willing to pay for Olympics tickets (thereby maximising revenue for Locog, assuming they are on a high percentage?)

All that touts are doing is buying from primary ticket owners and reselling closer to the event time to those willing to pay more as they become more certain of their ability to attend the event. The current situation means that anyone who can't plan far ahead (e.g. because they need to arrange transport to London) cannot practically travel to London in anticipation of buying a ticket, because there's a very high chance that they cannot obtain tickets at literally any price.

If LOCOG had any balls (and a reasonably well-functioning ticketing system) they would tell Ticketmaster to take a hike and run an active secondary market in tickets, buying back tickets at (purchase price - X%, with X between 50 and 90 depending on event and time of return) and reselling them. That they are not doing this indicates to me that they don't give a crap about making a decent return on investment, preferring instead to chase some chimera of "equality of access". My arse. If you want equality of access, run a lottery and tell the House of Commons up-front that you're giving away a billion or two in potential revenue in return for "equality". And don't cry about the un-filled seats that result.

An observation on Chinese medals

Looking at China's medals so far, they are performing best in the swimming and weightlifting. Swimming rewards tall, muscled competitors. Weightlifting rewards squat, broad competitors. Neither of these are matches for the typical short, slender Chinese physique. By contrast: shooting, fencing, diving are natural matches for the 100% focus on medal-winning training that China promotes.

If there were an Olympic medal for undetectable doping, my opinion is that China would be a shoe-in for the gold.

There's only one Boris Johnson

BoJo in the Telegraph on the Olympics so far:

As I write these words there are semi-naked women playing beach volleyball in the middle of the Horse Guards Parade immortalised by Canaletto. They are glistening like wet otters and the water is plashing off the brims of the spectators' sou'westers. The whole thing is magnificent and bonkers.

Extra points for his use of "pernoctates". Can you imagine Ken Livingstone trying to put together an article like that?

I have to give props to Danny Boyle; the opening ceremony was rather enjoyable and far from the disaster I was fearing. Though I still think that the lack of dancing sheep was a missed opportunity. It was however disappointing that Boris didn't get a slot. I hope that this tragic oversight can be rectified in the closing ceremony, at least.

Too much Olympic spirit?

Congratulations to an anonymous 34-year-old Londoner who exemplified everything that makes Britain what it is today when he attempted to swim the Atlantic as a tribute to the London Olympics:

The lifeguards called out a helicopter and a diver dropped into the sea and explained to the man that it was not a good idea to swim across the Atlantic and advised him to head back towards France.
He replied that he was a strong swimmer and felt up to it.

What a heartwarming tale, and what a can-do attitude. This man is clearly one to watch for the 2016 Olympics.

Foxworthy had it right, but wrong country

Jeff Foxworthy ("You might be a redneck if...") in early 1996:

The Olympics in Georgia... God, you know we're gonna screw that up... Hell, the Olympic rings will be five old tires nailed together.

He could have equally well been talking about London 2012. On our first opportunity to make an impression on foreign athletes, what happens?

The opening of a special 'Olympic Lane' today was meant to help athletes and VIPs make the 45-minute journey from Heathrow Airport to Stratford in effortless ease.
Try telling that to US hurdler Kerron Clement, who tweeted his frustration this morning after he was left stranded in traffic for four hours when his bus driver got lost en route to the Olympic Village.

Oopsie.

Even once they'd made it to the village, their travails weren't over:

USA Track and Field confirmed the American athletes were heading to the Village just to pick up their accreditation before travelling to their pre-Games training camp in Birmingham.

Birmingham? We're hosting our American cousins in a slightly warmer version of the South Side of Chicago?

Still, at least the driver found a road where he could drive legally. No such comfort in Southampton Row where the new Olympic lane makes it impossible for any non-Olympic non-bus driver to proceed.

The closer we get to these games, the more I think it's going to go horrifically wrong.

The Countryside Olympics

Danny Boyle wants to open the Olympics by transforming the stadium into the English countryside. I see vast satirical horizons opening. I'm recommend a formation of dancing sheep, a musical chorus of chirping blackbirds and mooing cows, a procession of tractors with farmers growling "Get orf moi laaaaand", and finishing off with a flock of starlings taking a crap all over the Argentine team and their Malvinas badges.

Boris is Mayor - again!

Congratulations to Boris! And he's straight into anticipating the forthcoming Olympics in his acceptance speech. Just remember, Boris, we're counting on you to embarrass at least four major heads of State at the opening ceremony. If two of those could be China and Argentina, that would be fantastic.

Update: Just heard Ken's concession speech. You know, Ken, it is actually possible to be gracious in defeat, not blame your loss on "media bias" and avoid "if only"s. The more I hear from him, the more pleased I am that BJ won.

SAMs and the Olympics

The MoD is considering siting surface-to-air missiles on top of flats in Tower Hamlets as part of Olympics protection measures. As one might imagine, this has gone down like a lead balloon with the residents:

But estate resident Brian Whelan said firing the missiles "would shower debris across the east end of London".
The journalist said: "At first I thought it was a hoax. I can't see what purpose high-velocity missiles could serve over a crowded area like Tower Hamlets.

Must... restrain... self...

I assume these would be Starstreak LML mounts; these are pretty small missiles (though pack enough of a wallop to take down even the largest plane). Presumably the scenario envisaged is to nail small-to-medium sized suicide planes before they impact the Olympics stadium. Frankly, given the urban density around Tower Hamlets and the Olympics site, if we get as far as having a plane like this within Starstreak range then things have gone pretty pear-shaped already, and it's only a matter of managing where the flaming debris is going to land.

For this reason, I propose moving all major events to the environs of Windsor, so that we can shoot down any offending planes and crash them safely into Slough. At worst this would cause several million pounds worth of urban improvements.

All eyes on the Olympics Opening Ceremony

The 2012 London Mayor election takes place on May 3rd this year. The most likely winners are the current incumbent Boris "Bozza" Johnson (Tory) and the previous mayor "Red" Ken "The Newt" Livingstone. While this blogger could normally care less about the political scene of London, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that, two months after this election, the winner will be headlining the 2012 Olympics opening ceremony.

I've seen Ken on any number of TV shows, and he's a cut above the average debater; even while disagreeing with his politics you have to concede his debating skills. However, I think any right-minded person will concede that, when it comes to the potential for an incredibly embarrassing but entertaining public spectacle, there is no competition worthy of the name for Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson. Watching him at the Beijing Olympics brought tears to my eyes; as he expounded on the subject of whiff-whaff, one could imagine the bug-eyed expressions of the Chinese senior politicians and apparatchiks as they listened to their translators. If Boris at the Olympics doesn't cause at least two diplomatic protests to be filed, I have sadly mis-judged him.

Therefore, people of London, I urge you to think of the spectacle of foreign dignitaries spluttering into their glasses of taxpayer-funded vintage champagne, and vote for Boris on May 3rd.