Showing posts with label Daily Wail. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Daily Wail. Show all posts

2015-04-23

Journos writing about trading and high-speed computing

I have to admit, this amused me - the Daily Mail trying to write about high-frequency trading:

Suspected rogue trader Navinder Sarao lived in his parents' modest home because it gave him a split-second advantage worth millions of pounds, it was claimed yesterday.
His family's semi-detached house in suburban West London is closer to an internet server used by one of the major financial exchanges, giving him a nanosecond advantage over rivals in the City.
[...]
Sarao, 36, was dubbed the 'Hound of Hounslow' after it emerged he lived at home with his parents, despite allegedly making £26.7million in just four years of dealing from their home.
And yet you'd think that renting a small flat in Slough and paying for Internet access there would have improved his speed advantage; at a cost of about £50K for four years, that would have been a bargain. Why, it's almost as if the Daily Mail journalists had no idea what they were talking about....

2015-01-06

BBC booze bill shocker

The shocker is, it's extremely reasonable:

The Corporation stated that the figure related to 'non-production related and production related spend'.
It added: 'The total spent on alcohol for the period 1st October 2013 to 26th October 2014 with the BBC's single preferred supplier Majestic Wine PLC was £43,000.'

I'm not the greatest fan of the BBC's compulsory TV licence, but I really don't think that this is worthy even of a Daily Mail throwaway article:

  • Use of bulk supplier for savings: check
  • Cost per employee per year: £2 , eminently reasonable, no reason to think this is taxpayer-funded employee booze
  • Cost per day: £130 over all channels and events. That's about 3 bottles of Veuve Clicquot NV at Sainsbury's prices. Assuming the BBC allocates half a bottle per top echelon (MP, MEP, sleb) guest, that's 6 top echelon guests per day which sounds about right.
It comes as up to 50 MPs called for the licence fee to be scrapped and replaced with a voluntary subscription service in its place.
Talk about tenuous connections. This is possibly one of the strongest signals of thrifty BBC spending there is, and you're linking it to a call for licence fee repeal? Your logic is not like our Earth logic, Daily Mail.

2014-12-16

The 2038 problem

I was inspired - perhaps that's not quite the right word - by this article on the Year 2038 bug in the Daily Mail:

Will computers be wiped out on 19 January 2038? Outdated PC systems will not be able to cope with time and date, experts warn Psy's Gangnam Style was recently viewed so many times on YouTube that the site had to upgrade the way figures are shown on the site.
  1. The site 'broke' because it runs on a 32-bit system, which uses four-bytes
  2. These systems can only handle a finite number of binary digits
  3. A four-byte format assumes time began on 1 January, 1970, at 12:00:00
  4. At 03:14:07 UTC on Tuesday, 19 January 2038, the maximum number of seconds that a 32-bit system can handle will have passed since this date
  5. This will cause computers to run negative numbers, and dates [sic]
  6. Anomaly could cause software to crash and computers to be wiped out
I've numbered the points for ease of reference. Let's explain to author Victoria Woollaston (Deputy Science and Technology editor) where she went wrong. The starting axiom is that you can represent 4,294,967,296 distinct numbers with 32 binary digits of information.

1. YouTube didn't (as far as I can see) "break".

Here's the original YouTube post on the event on Dec 1st:

We never thought a video would be watched in numbers greater than a 32-bit integer (=2,147,483,647 views), but that was before we met PSY. "Gangnam Style" has been viewed so many times we had to upgrade to a 64-bit integer (9,223,372,036,854,775,808)!
When they say "integer" they mean it in the correct mathematical sense: a whole number which may be negative, 0 or positive. Although 32 bits can represent 4bn+ numbers as noted above, if you need to represent negative numbers as well as positive then you need to reserve one of those bits to represent that information (all readers about to comment about two's complement representation can save themselves the effort, the difference isn't material.) That leaves you just over 2bn positive and 2bn negative numbers. It's a little bit surprising that they chose to use integers rather than unsigned (natural) numbers as negative view counts don't make sense but hey, whatever.
Presumably they saw Gangnam Style reach 2 billion views and decided to pre-emptively upgrade their views field from signed 32 bit to signed 64 bit. This is likely not a trivial change - if you're using a regular database, you'd do it via a schema change that requires reprocessing the entire database, and I'd guess that YouTube's database is quite big but it seemed to be in place by the time we hit the signed 32 bit integer limit.

2. All systems can only handle a finite number of binary digits.

For fuck's sake. We don't have infinite storage anywhere in the world. The problem is that the finite number of binary digits (32) in 4-byte representation is too small. 8 byte representation has twice the number of binary digits (64, which is still finite) and so can represent many more numbers.

3. The number of bytes has no relationship to the information it represents.

Unix computers (Linux, BSD, OS X etc.) represent time as seconds since the epoch. The epoch is defined as 00:00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC - for most purposes, the same as GMT), Thursday, 1 January 1970. The Unix standard was to count those seconds in a 32 bit signed integer. Now it's clear that 03:14:08 UTC on 19 January 2038 will see that number of seconds exceed what can be stored in a 32 bit signed integer, and the counter will wrap around to a negative number. What happens then is anyone's guess and very application dependent, but it's probably not good.
There is a move towards 64-bit computing in the Unix world, which will include migration of these time representations to 64 bit. Because this move is happening now, we have 23 years to complete it before we reach our Armageddon date. I don't expect there to be many 32 bit systems left operating by then - their memory will be rotted, their disk drives stuck. Only emulated systems will be still working, and everyone knows about the 2038 problem.

4. Basically correct, if grammatically poor

5. Who taught you English, headline writer?

As noted above, what will actually happen on the date in question is heavily dependent on how each program using the information behaves. The most likely result is a crash of some form, but you might see corruption of data before that happens. It won't be good. Luckily it's easy to test programs by just advancing the clock forwards and seeing what happens when the time ticks over. Don't try this on a live system, however.

6. Software crash, sure. Computer being "wiped out"? Unlikely

I can see certain circumstances where a negative date could cause a hard drive to be wiped, but I'd expect it to be more common for hard drives to be filled up - if a janitor process is cleaning up old files, it'll look for files with modification time below a certain value (say, all files older than 5 minutes ago). Files created before the positive-to-negative date point won't be cleaned up by janitors running after that point. So we leave those stale files lying around, but files created after that will still be eligible for clean-up - they have a negative time which is less than the janitor's negative measurement point.

I'm sure there will be date-related breakage as we approach 2038 - if a bank system managers 10 year bonds, then we will see breakage as their expiry time goes past january 2038, so the bank will see breakage in 2028. But hey, companies are already selling 50 year bonds so bank systems have had to deal with this problem already.

Thank goodness that I can rely on the Daily Mail journalists' expertise in all the articles that I don't actually know anything about.

2014-02-05

Now CASH are going after beer

Dear little green apples, it seems that our beer is too sugary:

Cardiologist Dr Aseem Malhotra said: ‘The levels of sugar in some of these drinks is quite staggering.
'There's nothing wrong with the occasional drink but unfortunately we are consuming much more than is good for us.' Dr Malhotra said alcohol-related ill health is costing the NHS £3.3 billion a year.
Nine teaspoons of sugar in a pint of real ale, apparently. Whoop de doo. That's about 36 grams, or two and a half tablespoons. And on the (unsourced) £3.3 billion, I note that alcohol duty is £10-11bn so it would seem to be more than covering its alleged costs.

Who is cardiologist Dr Aseem Malhotra? Oh look, he's listed as one of Action on Sugar's medical advisors:

Dr Aseem Malholtra, Cardiologist and Science Director of Action on Sugar
And yet, he doesn't publicise any academic connection unlike most of the Action on Sugar advisors. How curious. He's a HuffPost contributor who identifies as "Cardiologist and writer with a special interest in improving the nation's diet". A bit of digging indicates that he's a cardiology registrar at Croydon University Hospital. I'm sure he's a perfectly good registrar but, let's face it, CUH is not known as one of the great medical research establishments. Even his BMJ article is "Observations", not a research paper.

So CASH/Action on Sugar's science director seems to be a rather second-rank medic. Shallow calling unto shallow, I guess.

2013-08-17

Uptimes and apocalypses

Riley: Buffy. When I saw you stop the world from, you know, ending, I just assumed that was a big week for you. It turns out I suddenly find myself needing to know the plural of apocalypse.
"A New Man", Buffy The Vampire Slayer, S4 E12
Amused by the apocryphal tone of the Daily Mail's coverage of the 5-minute Google outage on Friday - just before midnight BST which explains why no-one in the UK except hardcore nerds noticed - I thought I'd do a brief explanation of the concept of "uptime" for an Internet service.

Marketeers <spit> describe expected system uptime in "nines" - the fraction of time that the system is expected to be available. A "two nines" system is available 99% of the time. This sounds pretty good, until you realise that every day the system can be down for about 14 minutes. If Google, Facebook or the BBC News website were down for quarter of an hour every day, there would be trouble. So this is a pretty low bar.

For "Three nines" (99.9%) you start to move into downtime measured in minutes per week - there are just over 10,000 minutes in a week, so if you allow 1 in 1000 of those to be down, you're looking at 10 minutes per week. This is pretty tight - the rule of thumb says that even if you have someone at the end of a pager 24/7 and great system monitoring that alerts you whenever something goes wrong, it will still take your guy 10-15 minutes to react to the alert, log in, look to see what's wrong - and that's before he works out how to fix it. So your failures need to occur less frequently than weekly.

When you get to "Four nines" (99.99%) you're looking at either a seriously expensive system or a seriously simple system. During a whole year, you're allowed fifty minutes of downtime, which by the maths above indicates no more than two incidents in that year - and, realistically, probably only one. At this level you start to be more reliable than most Internet Service Providers, so it starts to get hard to measure your uptime as your traffic is fluctuating all the time due to Internet outages of your users - if your traffic drops, is it due to something you've done or is it due to something external (e.g. a natural disaster like Hurricane Sandy?) Network connectivity and utility power supply are probably not this reliable, so you have to have serious redundancy and geographic distribution of your systems. I've personally run a distributed business system that nudged four nines of availability, with an under-resourced support team and it was a cast iron bastard - any time anything glitched, you had someone from Bangalore calling you at home around 1am. Not fun.

"Five Nines" (99.999%) is the Holy Grail of marketeers, but in practice it seems to be unachievable for a complex system. You have only 5 minutes per year of downtime allowed, which normally equates to one incident every 3-4 years at max. Either your system is extremely simple, or it's massively expensive to run. Normally the cost of that extra 45 minutes of uptime a year is prohibitive - easily double that of four nines in many cases, sometimes much more - and most reasonable people settle for four nines or, in practice, less than that.

Given that, let's examine the DM's assertion that "Experts said the outage had cost the company about £330,000 and that the event was unheard of." Google had about $50bn revenue last year so divide that by 366 (leap year) to get about $140M/day average, $5.7M/hour. A 5 minute outage is 1/12th of that, $474K or £303K at today's rates, so the number sounds about right. But "unheard of"? May 7 2005 was another outage, this time for around 15 minutes. Google, Twitter, Yahoo, Facebook, Bing, iTunes etc. go down for some areas of the planet fairly frequently - see DownRightNow which is currently showing me service disruptions for Yahoo Mail and Twitter. Gmail was down for a whole bunch of people for 18 minutes back in December. It's part of normal life.

Global networks go down all the time. Google going down for a few minutes is not the end of the world. It's happened before and will almost certainly happen again. The Daily Mail needs to find some better quality experts - but then, I guess their quotes aren't as quotable. I'm not surprised Google drops off the planet for 5 minutes - I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often, and I'm astonished they get it back online in 5 minutes. I also feel sorry for people setting up their Internet connection at home in that outage window, when they tried connecting to www.google.com to verify their connection and it failed. "I can't reach Google - my Internet must be bust, it certainly can't be Google that's unavailable..."

Update: (2013-08-19)
And now Amazon goes down worldwide for 30 minutes. I rest my case.

2013-05-15

A new technique in bomb disposal

Courtesy of the Daily Mail, writing about two morons carrying off 120mm shells from a beach in Dorset:

Ticking time bombs! 'Idiotic' pair pick up unexploded 2ft bombs that washed ashore - to 'sell them for scrap metal'
MoD urgently appeals for duo to contact them so they can diffuse bombs
Thank goodness for the years of study that the Daily Mail subs must have put in. Presumably the EOD officers will put the rusty shells in a tank of water and let them flake off and randomly move through the water until the shells have completely disintegrated.

Image original in case they fix it:

I agree with the point of the article, however. It's not clear to me whether they are 105mm or 120mm shells, but if someone starts banging on them with a hammer then it's not going to make too much of a difference; if the shell isn't inert, they'll be spread pretty thinly over their house walls (which will be spread across their neighbours' gardens).

2013-04-03

Zoe Williams on Philpott - that didn't take long

Sure enough, the Philpott verdict is barely out the door when Zoe Williams is wailing about the implications in Comment Is Free:

But the [Daily Mail] paragraph that had me churning with impotent rage was this one: "Michael Philpott is a perfect parable for our age: his story shows the pervasiveness of evil born of welfare dependency.
All is proceeding as I have foreseen. Zoe is terrified, and apparently impotent. Gosh, Zoe. If only you were a major columnist in a leading UK newspaper, eh? Then you might be able to shape opinions in the same way that the Daily Mail does.

Anyway, let's leave Zoe's puissance aside and address the substance of her complaint:

It is vitriolic, illogical depersonalisation to ascribe the grotesqueness of one wild, unique crime to tens of thousands of people on benefits. When any section of society is demonised on irrational grounds we have to take that seriously
Indeed we should. But the Daily Mail is not (at least explicitly) saying that all welfare dependents are Philpott; rather, that Philpott is a phenomenon who required the welfare dependency culture to exist. After all, he burned down his house in the intention of obtaining a better one - and who gave him that house, and who would have given him a replacement? Why, the welfare state. Without the welfare state, Philpott's horrific crime would have had no purpose. Now we shouldn't therefore condemn the welfare state out of hand - the highest purpose can be turned to evil by a suitable twisted mind - but let's not fool ourselves that the current benefits system was anything but necessary to Philpott's plan.

So what of the tens of thousands whom the DM tars with the brush of welfare dependency?

At the weekend the Baptists, Methodists, the United Reform church and the Church of Scotland came out against the six myths routinely spread, by politicians, about the poor: that they are lazy, addicted to drink or drugs, not really poor, cheat the system, have an easy life, and that they caused the deficit. Set down on paper, they are astonishing, laughable. And yet these ideas are pervasive, written across the landscape of this miserable Tory Narnia.
The UK unemployment rate is 2.5M. That is, 2.5M people are looking for work but cannot find it (and hence, must exist on benefits). It seems reasonable to assume that unemployed people and poor people have a substantial intersection - let's say that 2M unemployed people are poor. "Tens of thousands" is on the order of 1%-2% of this number. The DM claims that 1%-2% of unemployed people are taking the piss. Does this seem unreasonable? Heck, of the tens of unemployed people whom I've know reasonably well over the past few years, several (~ 10%) have been taking the piss. This is not a reason to demonise the remaining 98%, but Zoe fails to refute the numbers presented by the DM.

What about "troubled" families?

We're told there are 120,000 "troubled families", costing £9bn – the troubles relating to crime, drink, drugs and antisocial behaviour – when, on closer inspection, it turns out there are 120,000 poor families
Guess what, Zoe? The Philpotts were not poor by any reasonable description. There was a poverty of aspiration, and certainly a moral poverty, but they had taxpayer-funded accommodation and plenty of welfare payments. That Philpott chose to spend the money on himself rather than his children was not anything that the State could affect. Again, assuming 15M families in the UK, you're talking about 1% of the population causing significant trouble to its neighbours. Every village of 100 families knows one or two families who take the piss, cause trouble, reap benefits and do nothing - or worse than nothing - in return. £9bn is £75K per problem family. Assume that every problem family occupies most of a community police constable's time, and you're more than half way towards that cost before any property damage or theft is taken into account. Does this £9bn now sound such an unbelievable number?

Zoe also misses a trick in her conclusion:

So much current political rhetoric relies on accepting the idea that the poor differ in fundamental ways, that they care less for their children, that they are less honest, that they are more stupid.
Perhaps it does. But no such rhetoric is necessary in the UK. All that a politician need do is point to the examples of Mick Philpott, Heather Frost and similar fecund work-shy beneficiaries of the benefit system and ask "is that what you want your taxes to support?" If Zoe Williams wants to protect the poor, and she should, she should come up with proposals that will channel taxpayer funds away from these unsympathetic examples of welfare dependency. Your move, Zoe.

Uncomfortable truths from the Philpott killings

While we wait for Mrs. Justice Thirlwall to sentence hopeless self-obsessed chav arsonist Mick Philpott it's worth reflecting on how this case relates to the current debate about benefit payments in the UK. Indeed, I find it best to focus on this rather than the current mitigation being carried out:

Anthony Orchard QC, representing Philpott, said: "Despite Mr Philpott's faults he was a very good father and loved those children. All the witnesses, even Lisa Willis [Philpott's former mistress], agree on this. There's no evidence at any stage that he deliberately harmed any of them.
Lord have mercy. I think I just threw up in my mouth a little. While realising that Orchard QC is doing his job in mitigating for his client - and Heaven knows it's a job few would want to undertake - the chutzpah in this claim makes one's eyes water. We are apparently to trust the character judgement of a woman who felt led to shack up with Philpott - while he was already married to Mairead. And yes, I concede that he did not deliberately harm them, but I'm sure that Orchard QC is aware of the ins and outs of involuntary manslaughter including such by gross negligence. Intent to harm is not required. Showing that "the defendant's negligence was gross, that is, it showed such a disregard for the life and safety of others as to amount to a crime and deserve punishment" would seem to have been a slam dunk in this case. When the families of both Philpotts regard justice as having been done by the convictions, you know you're on a bit of a loser of a case.

The mother's QC is also clearly out of ideas and trying a similar line of mitigation:

Shaun Smith QC, for Mairead Philpott, said there was no evidence "any of these children were in any sort of danger or peril prior to that night [of the fire] whatsoever".
This falls into the "not particularly true, and spectacularly irrelevant" category. Philpott's previous 7 years in chokey for attempted murder of a former girlfriend, and violence in every relationship since (according to the judge) should at least raise an eyebrow, even if it wasn't enough for Social Services to get involved.

It feels wrong to turn to the Mail for my facts, but those facts do seem to be rather damning:

Of the six children pulled dead or dying from the Philpott family home in the early hours of the morning of May 11, 2012, only ten-year-old Jade was wearing pyjamas. Jack and Jesse, eight and six, were in their underwear while Duwayne, 13, was in his jeans, as was John, nine. As for the youngest, Jayden, just five, he was wearing his full school uniform.
Right, so Philpott didn't care whether his children were comfortable in their beds. At least he ensured they didn't go hungry?
"The children would be given a quarter of a bun each with a bit of hot dog or burger in it, served with chips," he said. "There never seemed to be enough food to go around. Little Jayden just lived on chips."
Apparently not. He seemed to be able to afford a large TV or two, though. So apart from neglecting, starving and failing to clothe his children, Philpott was a very good father. Well, there was the whole burning-six-of-them-to-death-with-arson thing but let's not dwell, eh?

Sorry. There's something about this case that makes me see red.

Back to my original point, and I promise I had one. For backers of the current benefit system, this case could not have come at a worst time. When they wave their hands and say "cuts are bad, children will suffer and starve", the obvious rejoinder for their political opponents is to point to this case. "Hey, it seems that providing free housing and an alleged £60K/year of benefits (across all his children, presumably) isn't enough to prevent children starving, because scumbag parents like the Philpotts spend the money on themselves." This is of course unfair as a generality. There are relatively few people like Mick and Mairead Philpott in the UK with sprawling families, complete unwillingness to work, and a total dependency on benefit payments. Like it or not, though, people on near-minimum-wage paying income tax will be looking at these cases and thinking "hang on, just why am I working to provide these arseholes with a comfortable work-free life?"

It remains to be seen what impact cutting benefits to a family like the Philpotts will have. I have a horrible suspicion that, however their lifestyle changes, it won't be much to the detriment of the father nor to the benefit of the children. Regardless, the Philpott case is going to be the spur for further changes to the welfare system, presumably on the lines of "something must be done! this is something, therefore we must do it."

As for Mick and Mairead Philpott, I don't see them getting much leniency out of Mrs. Justice Thirlwall (aka Dame Kathryn). She has already stamped on Orchard QC trying to argue that the 1978 attempted murder was an isolated incident. In a impotent rape appeal case last year the defendant's argument that his victim wasn't really vulnerable didn't fly with her either:

O'Keefes lawyers said the vulnerability of his victim was not an aggravating factor and argued his sentence should be reduced, at the appeal court.
But Mrs Justice Thirlwall slammed this argument as a 'startling submission'. She said: "Not only is it startling, it is wrong. This application to appeal sentence is refused."
Not a dame to mince words. I look forward to her sentencing remarks tomorrow.

Update: Zoe Williams is first out of the gate defending the benefits system.

2013-02-27

Lies, damn lies and entrance statistics

Shock! Horror! Oxford University appears to be discriminating in favour of white students and against ethnic minorities:

In medicine, 43 per cent of white students who went on to receive three or more A* grades at A-level got offers, compared with 22.1 per cent of minority students with the same grades, according to data obtained by The Guardian newspaper.
Now, let's bear in mind that as A-level grade inflation has taken hold, three A* grades is no longer the talent indicator that even three A grades might have been 25 years ago:
In a 2007 report Robert Coe compared students scores in the ALIS ability test with equivalent grades achieved in A level exams between 1988 and 2006. He found that students of similar ability were achieving on average about 2 grades higher in 2006 than they were in 1988. In the case of maths it was nearer to 3.5 grades higher.[24]
i.e. an 'A' in 2006, which is presumably near an A* in 2013, was a 'C' in 1988. But that 43% vs 22% relative percentage seems to be damning, surely?

Assuming, just for the moment, that Oxford University medical professors aren't rampant racists, what could be the explanation? An Oxford University spokesperson hints:

"We do know that a tendency by students from certain ethnic groups to apply disproportionately for the most competitive subjects reduces the success rate of those ethnic groups overall."
Chinese and South Asian (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi) students are disproportionately likely to apply to become doctors; you can tell this because they are disproportionately (compared to % of UK population) likely to be medical students. This is inversely true for Afro-Caribbean students who are rarely found in the professional medicine track. What the Daily Mail fails to supply is the raw stats on applicant and successful applicant numbers broken down by ethnic group, which could then be analysed based on the ethnic distribution of 18 year old students. I would be very interested in those numbers, which I suspect would tell a very different story to the DM's angle.

I invite the reader to inspect the list of Oxford University physiology lecturers. It's not obvious that they are prejudiced against South Asian or Oriental medical experts. Out of 53 staff, 6 match that ethnic background (11%) which is much greater than the 5% you'd expect even given the most favourable reading of the UK ethnic breakdown.

2013-02-12

Coke - it's the real arrhythmia

Personal responsibility has reached a new low where a New Zealand woman, Natasha Harris, who drank 18 pints of Coca-Cola per day mysteriously died.

Yes, you read that right. 18 pints. For reference, if you drank that much fresh water daily you'd be at serious risk of euvolaemic hyponatremia a.k.a. too much fresh water excessively diluting the sodium in the body. So if you're going to drink anything at a rate of 18 pints per day, Coke - or indeed beer - is a far better choice than water. That does not, however, make it a good idea.

Consuming 18 pints of caffeinated sugar solution has its problems. Coke has about 34mg of caffeine per 12 oz, which is about 55mg per pint (assuming imperial pints); that's about 1g of caffeine per day. This is well under the mean lethal dose of 200mg/Kg body weight but equivalent to about 8 cups per day. 1 pint of Coca-Cola has about 65g of sugar so Ms. Harris was consuming well over 1Kg of sugar per day. I'm staggered that she didn't fall into a diabetic coma within a couple of weeks of starting this diet.

I'm sure that Ms. Harris was advised by her nearest and dearest that this wasn't a good idea, surely?

[Her partner] Mr Hodgkinson told the court that she had been unwell up to a year before her death, including vomiting six times a week, but they believed it was caused by the stress of looking after her eight children and gynecological problems.
...
'I didn't ever think about the Coke. I never considered it would do any harm to a person. It's just a soft drink, just like drinking water. I didn't think a drink's going to kill you,' he said.
As we saw, water is even more dangerous. But she had lost all her teeth to the drink, went "crazy" whenever she couldn't get it - couldn't someone who cared for her actually get her to stop?

Mr. Hodgkinson did try to take action, but his timing and direction were not helpful:

Coca-Cola confirmed it had hired a security firm to shadow its staff, after Mr Hodgkinson allegedly made death threats against the company before she died. He rejected claims he had made the threats, but said he held the company responsible for Harris' death.
<bangs head on table>. Mr. Hodgkinson, you were having to throw away four empty 2.5L bottles of Coke every single day. How could you and Ms. Harris not be aware that this was not normal, and really bad for both you?

2013-01-13

Comp season, break out the popcorn

This week is banking bonus week and the Daily Mail is carefully working itself (and its readership) into a froth of rage, hyperbole and errors:

...staff at Goldman Sachs are expected to reward themselves(1) £8.3 billion in bonuses(2) on Wednesday. The American investment bank, which employs 5,500 staff in the UK, will be the first to unveil its telephone number-sized(3) rewards – an average of £250,000 a person(4) – as part of the latest round of bonus updates.
Taking them in order:
  1. Hopefully obviously, it's not the case that every banker sticks his or her grubby paws into a barrel full of dollars and pulls out what he or she likes. The Goldman Sachs partners will allocate the available bonus pool between the divisions; each division's partners will then allocate most of what they have around their profitable traders, and the remnants get handed down the management chain, shrinking as they go. The only way a "banker" can determine his own bonus is to threaten to leave if he doesn't get at least $X, and in today's banking job market the number of people who can make that threat effective are few.
  2. The "bonus" pool is actually total compensation - you have to take away what people are actually paid as a salary before you can start to dole it out in cash bonuses, shares, and deferred shares.
  3. Taking a typical phone number of 01234 567890, that looks like $1.2bn (if we are generous and assume the DM is referring to the original dollar figure rather than the UK equivalent). I rather doubt even the top partner is going to get 10% of all compensation to himself.
  4. There will be very few people with a total compensation around £250,000. The troops in the trenches making up most of Goldman Sachs' 32,600 headcount will get much less than £100,000 in total compensation; they'll be lucky to get a bonus of 25% of their salary. Not peanuts, to be sure, but less than half the average. Those earning above £250,000 will mostly be managing directors, partners and perhaps very senior vice presidents. Best guess is that there are around 2000 MDs and partners.

I particularly treasure the Daily Mail reader comments on this:

The US government gave them huge amounts of money with no recourse. So what happened there and now that they are making losts of money how is the US taxpayer going to get some of it back. Its absolutely Obscene. What sort of INSIDE deals were being done in US government. Seriously.
- EUSSR, London, 13/1/2013 17:28
Yes, I'd imagine the US government is gnashing its teeth at only getting a 22% (annualised) profit on its enforced loan to Goldman Sachs. The fiends!

What I don't expect to see is any comment about Goldman Sachs profits and bonuses from a certain G. Osborne. Assume the DM is correct in the figure of £8.3 billion total comp, and given 5000 people in London, that's £1.3bn in pay to be taxed. Assuming a conservative average tax take of 50% (50% top level income tax + 2% ee NI + 13.8% er NI == 65.8% marginal tax over £150K, so 50% average over all employees seems low if anything) the Treasury will see a total of £650 million in tax from London-based Goldman Sachs employees this year. Toss in JP Morgan, Barclays, Lloyds into the mix and I would think Mr. Osborne is going to keep his mouth shut about the evil bankers.

2013-01-10

On the notion of public trust

This article on DCI Casburn trying to sell phone-tapping investigation information to the News of the World is one of the most appalling things I've read recently - not for the writing style (so much) as for what a senior police officer is prepared to do for a relatively small amount of money:

The reporter on the News of the World who took the call, Tim Wood, wrote an email to more senior colleagues, detailing what he claimed had been said. It was the crown's [sic] main evidence against Casburn.
It read: "PHONE TAPPING. A senior policewoman ... who claims to be working on the phone-tapping investigation wants to sell inside info on the police inquiry. [...]"
Oopsie. Bang goes her claim of a public-interest defence. It's not the first time a casual email has landed someone in the clink, but it's instructive that today it's someone else's casually-written email which has sunk Mrs. Casburn.

So what's going to happen to her?

Mr Justice Fulford warned Casburn, a mother of three, that she faced an immediate custodial sentence and the Metropolitan police said she had "betrayed the service and let down her colleagues". But Patrick Gibbs QC, her counsel, asked the judge to take into account the fact that Casburn was in the process of adopting a child.
[...]
Casburn will be sentenced later. Her barrister said he would be seeking a suspended sentence. She is of previous good character and has a flawless disciplinary record.
Her barrister can seek all he likes. A pending child adoption is not a get-out-of-jail-free card. If a child's moral welfare is an important consideration of adoption, what sort of example does it send for the child to be adopted by a greedy duplicitous woman who abuses the trust placed in her by the public for personal financial gain? A DCI outside London earns £50K-60K depending on experience, and you can add on another £5K or so for London; what was she expecting from the NotW? And how, being a DCI involved in counter-terrorism operations, could she expect this money to not create a paper trail and raise eyebrows? Perhaps she's just not a very good DCI, promoted for reasons other than competence.

By the way, has the Guardian adopted "mother of X" as its version of the Daily Mail's "homeowner of a £XXX,000 semi" pointless personal adjunct? How does having 3 children bear on her guilt, culpability or detention prospects?

Frankly I hope that a 5 year sentence is at the low end of what Casburn can expect (in addition to losing her pension). I'm also hoping, but without much expectation of success, that the superiors who repeatedly promoted her will be getting their judgement very carefully scrutinised; I would like to know what it was about her service in the child protection unit that resulted in her repeated promotion and moving into counter-terrorism (what the hell is the connection between the two?) beyond having a pair of boobs. It certainly wasn't any competence in the world of electronic communications.

It's possible I sound somewhat harsh. However I view this as such a fundamental and stupid breach of trust by a senior public official that I can't see anything other than a substantial jail sentence offering sufficient deterrence to others thinking of doing the same thing. If she gets a suspended sentence, it's a clear message that sitting down to pee is a licence to break the law and abuse public trust with relative impunity. If you value the public service of women, this is a message that may not stand.

2013-01-06

UK criminal treatment jumps the shark

I try very hard to take the crime reports from the Daily Mail with a pinch of salt (and possibly lime and tequila, as P J O'Rourke suggests). But the case of scrap metal thieving scroatbag David Taylor really seems to have taken reality beyond satire:

Mr Edwards said his family has lost thousands of pounds through theft and damage caused in a number of raids on their land. They caught Taylor and an accomplice loading stolen metal cables into the back of his Ford Transit after spotting that outbuildings had been tampered with. The thieves jumped into the van and drove it towards the pair as they desperately dialled 999 for help.
Taylor was fined £100 plus £35 damages. I suspect he didn't care much about these sanctions. But what happened to Mr. Edwards when he reacted to the van being driven at him?
Mr Edwards fired his shotgun, which was loaded with lightweight rabbit shot, several times, hitting the van's windscreen and bodywork. No one was hurt.
This seems like a fairly clear definition of self-defence. You can sympathise with the police for initially arresting Edwards - after all, the facts on what happened weren't necessarily clear despite the police having pursued Taylor in a high-speed chase before he crashed. But it took four months of being under threat of prosecution before the CPS decided no further action need be taken against Edwards; he and his mother were held overnight in police cells before being bailed, which was probably not avoidable from the point of view of rigorously establishing the facts of the case, but four months with having a jail sentence hanging over one's head for defending yourself is ridiculous. And a charge of attempted murder is demented. There is no reasonable way that firing rabbit shot at someone inside a van is attempted murder.

The tea leaf's reaction is to be expected, but one wonders what his solicitor is on:

Taylor left court grinning and sneered 'lucky you' at Mr Edwards after finding out the attempted murder allegation had been dropped. Moments earlier his solicitor Ian Brickman said the thief 'is in many ways the victim in this' and was left so 'traumatised' he cannot work.
One can only hope that Brickman keeps a large amount of scrap metal in his garden shed and that Taylor has found this out.

I offer you in contrast the heart-warming story of Paul Slater in Loganville, Georgia:

The woman was working in an upstairs office when she spotted a strange man outside a window, according to Walton County Sheriff Joe Chapman. He said she took her 9-year-old twins to a crawlspace before the man broke in using a crowbar.
But the man eventually found the family.
"The perpetrator opens that door. Of course, at that time he's staring at her, her two children and a .38 revolver," Chapman told Channel 2's Kerry Kavanaugh.
Slater was hit by 5 out of 6 shots, ran off, tried to drive away but crashed and crawled away. He's in hospital and may or may not survive. Sheriff Joe Chapman shows no inclination to arrest the shooter, even to establish the facts of the case - Slater was in the woman's house, she had no duty to retreat (even though she did retreat to the house's crawlspace). Any admonishment would likely have related to her choice of weapon, bullet caliber and magazine size.

I can understand the CPS's possible diligence in trying to establish all the facts before informing Edwards that he would not be charged. However, the presumption towards charging in these circumstances is nothing short of appalling. Having established that Taylor the scroatbag was on the Edwards property with felonious intent (and action), and that Edwards only had rabbit shot in the gun which was very unlikely to cause serious damage to Taylor even if he'd been sticking his head out of the van window, the presumption should have been that Edwards was acting in legitimate self-defence; taking four months to exclude the remote possibility of felonious intent was stupid, lazy behaviour by the CPS.

If the UK population comes around to believing that the CPS is on the side of the criminal's rights (and in the process assumes the police force is basically the same entity as the CPS), the public support for the police is going to evaporate like a fart in a tornado. When that happens, everyone is going to suffer.

2012-12-11

27% of UK citizens have a death wish

Reading this Daily Mail article claiming that 64% of people walk on past a gang of teen troublemakers, I can only wonder - what's wrong with the remaining 36%? The poll claims that 27% overall would step in to stop a gang drinking and verbally abusing passers-by, and I'm sure that this overstates the numbers who would actually intervene - still, any rational evaluation of self-preservation would force the average passer-by to avert their eyes and keep walking. I do not, of course, include Chuck Norris or Jack Bauer in that category, but I understand they seldom visit South London or Birmingham

If drunken teens are abusing bystanders, they're not going to stop when someone they don't know from Adam tells them to stop. Why would they? They've been brought up in an environment where there are no effective sanctions on bad behaviour. Even if they've been in the criminal justice system due to thefts, assault etc. the presumption is to hand out suspended sentences to "encourage" them to go straight. Someone mouthing off at them is very unlikely to change their behaviour unless it's their mother - we assume that their father either isn't around, or is a waste of skin.

If it escalates into physical violence, the problems are worse. If you initiate the violence, even if defensively in fear of your safety, you will certainly be arrested and likely charged. The CPS might well not be able to make the charge stick, at least if you're sensible enough to keep your mouth shut and demand legal representation, but that's still several months of your life with the end of your professional career hanging over you. If they attack you without provocation, it's a toss-up as to whether a bystander will back your side of the story when the police turn up; they will claim you attacked them, and there's no downside for them to do this. Perjury prosecution? Don't make me laugh.

Practically, unless you get in fights on a regular basis, you are very unlikely to come out well from a 1 vs 2 engagement with teens; if they're drunk, their reflexes are slower but they feel less pain. Even 1 vs 1, you're gambling that they don't get a lucky hit or kick in and disable you. Once you're on the ground, they're going to kick you in the chest and head, even if they're a woman. A kick in the head in the right place can be permanently disabling, if not fatal.

What's the upside? You won't change anything by intervening. Drunk teens mouth off at bystanders every single day. Even if you scare them off today, they'll be back tomorrow. You can't apply any violent sanction, because you'll either be jailed (if disproportionate), arrested and charged (if proportionate defence), or in hospital or the morgue (if outnumbered or unlucky). Congratulations to the lawmakers and social scientists who have put this incentive scheme in place. May you be verbally abused and threatened daily.

2012-12-04

Good news about the change to the UK laws of succession to the throne

Despite the Daily Mail publishing possibly the most stupid article in the world about the royal pregnancy and possibility of twins, the most relevant story about the royal succession is that gender is no longer a determining factor. This resolves a long-standing ambiguity and potential for constitutional crisis - what if the royal baby were a hermaphrodite? Under the old succession laws, the order of succession would have been ill-defined. Now that gender is irrelevant, a hermaphrodite royal can succeed in the same order as a male or female. I expect that's a weight off everyone's mind.

2012-09-05

"Courage" - a judge's view

Too good to miss, Judge Peter Bowers tries to steer a burglar back to the straight and narrow by praising him:

He told Teesside Crown Court yesterday: 'It takes a huge amount of courage as far as I can see for somebody to burgle somebody’s house. I wouldn’t have the nerve.
'Yet somehow, bolstered by drugs and desperation, you were prepared to do that,' he told Rochford, 26.

No doubt there have been other such cases from Judge Bowers through the years:

To a rapist:
"You must have great self-control to get it up in such circumstances."
To an arsonist:
"Your understanding of the chemistry of combustion and gaseous dynamics is extremely impressive."
To a white collar criminal:
"I can't even use Windows; your computing and spreadsheet knowledge would clearly be a great asset to many people."
To a mugger:
"Such pugilistic technique! Such planning, and patience!"
To a politician with a loose accounting system for expenses:
"Weren't you the prefect in my class at Harrow who stuck the toasting fork up the nether regions of Smithers Minor? Exemplary school spirit!"
To a murderer:
"I'm sure the late Mr. Smith's family are extremely grateful that you provided them with the life insurance money in these financially straitened times."

But back to our hapless burglar, what happened to him?

Judge Bowers said: 'What you’ve done since I find rather extraordinary and something which doesn’t often happen.
'I’m going to take a chance on you, an extraordinary chance, one which I don’t often take.'
Just curious, Judge, what's the downside for you with this bet? Presumably your home security is good enough that you're not worried that this gentleman will be breaking through your scullery window. It's easy to take a chance when you're gambling with someone else's possessions, isn't it?

Top score in the comments goes to Patricia from London:

I think someone with this amount of courage should be given six weeks basic training and shipped out to Afghanistan to fight for his country.
Perhaps finding IEDs the hard way?

2012-08-07

You can't buck the (housing) market

An instructive tail of wishful homeowner thinking in the Daily Mail:

Gilly Vines, 36, and her husband Richard planned to sell their two-bedroom flat in Exmouth, Devon, now they have two young children, and buy a house with a garden. But the flat wouldn't shift, so Mrs Vines applied for a let-to-buy mortgage, which allows homeowners to borrow for a new home while renting out their old property. Yet the valuation on their flat was £10,000 less than expected
(my emphasis). Umm, well, that doesn't seem terribly inconsistent. Flat is overpriced - flat won't sell. Flat is overpriced - flat valuation is less than asking price. One is led to the inexorable conclusion that their flat isn't worth as much as they thought.

Those readers with memories that reach past 2008 might enjoy the following complaint:

Halifax, Bank of Ireland, the Co-operative and Yorkshire and Clydesdale banks have all lifted their SVRs this year to between 3.99 and 4.95 pc. West Bromwich Building Society charges 5.84 pc — nearly 12 times the Bank of England base rate.
Oh noes! 5.84% interest! Whatever shall we do? I know, let's look at the 2007 typical variable mortgage rate, shall we? That looks like a solid 7.5% to me.

I'm not sure I'd go so far as the esteemed Mr. Wadsworth in claiming that the entire UK economy is being run for the benefit of homeowners, but it really does appear that the Daily Mail is trying to defend the home-owning indefensible here.

Taking your job title too seriously

What would you expect Lloyds bank's Head of Fraud to do?

Jessica Harper abused her position at Lloyds Banking Group over a four-year period between 2007 and 2011.
The former head of fraud and security for online digital banking submitted false invoices to claim £2,463,750.88 before laundering part of the proceeds buying property for her family.
Oopsie. Bit of a black mark for whoever promoted her, then.

Strangely, the article is silent on any consequences for Lloyds management letting this lady roll in the trough for four years.

Sue Patten, head of the Crown Prosecution Service, Central Fraud Division, said: 'Jessica Harper has today been convicted of the type of crime the bank employed her to combat.
'The evidence in the case was clear and left Harper with little choice but to plead guilty. In doing so, she has admitted to a huge breach of trust against her former employer.
Wonder if Lloyds has ever heard of "Trust, but verify"?

2012-07-29

Too much Olympic spirit?

Congratulations to an anonymous 34-year-old Londoner who exemplified everything that makes Britain what it is today when he attempted to swim the Atlantic as a tribute to the London Olympics:

The lifeguards called out a helicopter and a diver dropped into the sea and explained to the man that it was not a good idea to swim across the Atlantic and advised him to head back towards France.
He replied that he was a strong swimmer and felt up to it.
What a heartwarming tale, and what a can-do attitude. This man is clearly one to watch for the 2016 Olympics.

2012-07-25

This would really tick me off

According to the Daily Mail (and if you can't trust them, whom can you trust?) some tick bites can cause the victim to become allergic to red meat. Strewth.

There's a particular irony here:

Experts traced the delayed allergic response to bites from a tick - specifically the Lone Star tick.
The Lone Star tick, presumably from the Lone Star State - Texas - famed for steaks the size of your dinnerplate. I have a horrible thought - is this the result of some fiendish genetic manipulation by the cows on whom the ticks normally prey? Mark Wadsworth, please call your office.